UK GDP rises 0.1%


UK GDP rises 0.1%

Q1 Gross Domestic Product in the UK increased 0.1% in the second estimate, the Office for National Statistics announced this morning. This is unchanged from 0.1% quarter-to-quarter rise reported in the preliminary estimate. Comparing this to a year ago, the UK GDP increased 1.2% y/y, unchanged from the estimate. Within the structure on Q1 GDP, household […]

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Pound gains after positive Brexit news

Sterling rallied more than half a percent to hit a two-day high after a media report that Britain would tell Brussels it was prepared to stay in the European Union’s customs union after a transitional arrangement. Britain will tell Brussels it is prepared to stay in the customs union beyond 2021 as ministers remained deadlocked […]

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Daily Update

Fed speakers continue to leave open the door to raising rates three more times this year if the data starts to accelerate. The US economy continues to perform well, although questions remain over Europe and the UK, which has been the main driver of the USD recently. It will, therefore, be interesting to hear whether […]

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Employment Data Positive

British employers hired many more workers than expected in early 2018 but wage growth has yet to accelerate sharply, according to figures that leave the Bank of England still waiting for signs the economy is ready for a rise in interest rates. Employment rose by 197K during the first three months of this year, the […]

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Sterling continues poor run

Market probability of a rate hike from the Bank of England next week has dropped to less than a tenth from more than 90 percent a month ago. Weak survey data from Britain’s services sector for April rounded off a disappointing streak of economic figures starting with last week’s shock first quarter GDP data and […]

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UK Services Data Disappoints

Sterling gained slightly yesterday after positive manufacturing data however the negative numbers continued this morning after a major survey showed Britain’s services sector struggled to recover in April from a sharp slowdown in March, further squeezing expectations of an interest rate hike next week. The IHS Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.8 in […]

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ECB Meeting Today

The main economic event today is the ECB policy announcement at 12:45BST, followed by the press conference with President Mario Draghi at 13:30BST. No changes to interest rates or the asset purchase programme (€30bn/month) are expected. At the last meeting in March, the ECB removed its easing bias on asset purchases but kept the end […]

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Sterling hits a 2 week low

Sterling slipped to a two-week low against the dollar and Euro as investors questioned whether the Bank of England would raise interest rates in May following weaker-than-expected economic data and cautious comments from governor Mark Carney. The pound has been one of the best performing major currencies in 2018 and last week surged to its […]

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UK Inflation drops unexpectedly

UK inflation dropped to a one year low, according to figures which now raise doubts about a rate rise in May and further rises going forward. There is still a 96% chance of a UK rate rise in May and we believe this is already priced into the markets. Official data showed annual consumer price […]

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Pound continues to out perform

The pound rose today despite Britain’s military intervention in Syria, as investors focused on data that could help shore up expectations of a May interest rate hike. Britain struck Syria with cruise missiles on Saturday in partnership with Western allies, targeting chemical weapons facilities. Sterling rose, continuing a two-week rally against the dollar that on […]

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