Carney comments hammer the pound!


Carney comments hammer the pound!

BoE Governor Carney, in an interview last night, seemed somewhat less committal in regards to tightening policy in the UK, focusing more on the slow path in the coming years while suggesting that “a hike is likely this year”. The market has been near “fully priced” for a 25bp hike in May and a rising […]

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Retail Sales Miss Expectations

UK retail sales recorded their biggest quarterly fall in a year during the three months to March. We expected as much as the weather played a big part, keeping consumers at home. Retail sales volumes in March were 1.2 percent lower than the month before. For the first quarter, sales volumes dropped by 0.5 percent […]

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UK Inflation drops unexpectedly

UK inflation dropped to a one year low, according to figures which now raise doubts about a rate rise in May and further rises going forward. There is still a 96% chance of a UK rate rise in May and we believe this is already priced into the markets. Official data showed annual consumer price […]

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UK Wage Growth Stalls

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed today, the UK’s average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses matched expectations, arriving at 2.8% 3m y/y versus 2.6% last while the gauge including bonuses steadied at 2.8% 3m y/y versus 3.0% expected. The official jobless rate ticked lower to 4.2% in February, while the claimant count change increased more-than-expected. […]

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Pound continues to out perform

The pound rose today despite Britain’s military intervention in Syria, as investors focused on data that could help shore up expectations of a May interest rate hike. Britain struck Syria with cruise missiles on Saturday in partnership with Western allies, targeting chemical weapons facilities. Sterling rose, continuing a two-week rally against the dollar that on […]

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Sterling hits a 9 month high

Sterling has continued to gain against the euro, however, this could be affected next week when we have the UK wage data and employment figures released. We believe that wage growth including bonuses may slow slightly whereas the unemployment is expected to be up – both could have a negative impact on the pound. On […]

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Market Update – Dollar Struggles

Bank of England credit conditions survey may receive some attention today. Markets will be looking for signs of an impact from last November’s interest rate hike on the demand for or availability of credit. Tonight, BoE Governor Carney is talking in Canada, but unlikely we will get anything new regarding monetary policy from this. In […]

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UK data disappointing this morning

British manufacturing output fell unexpectedly in February, its first drop in almost a year, according to official figures that added to signs the economy may have slowed in the first quarter. The data, released this morning along with figures for overseas trade, also showed another sharp drop in construction output, defying expectations for a small […]

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McCafferty speech boosts Sterling

Sterling hit a two-week high today after a top policymaker said the Bank of England should not delay in raising interest rates after a recent strong pick-up in the world economy. Ian McCafferty, one of the two members of the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee who voted for a rate rise last month, said in an […]

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Sterling starts the week on the up

Sterling rose against the euro and dollar this morning and is on track for a third consecutive day of gains as investors are encouraged by data showing British house prices rising more than expected in March. Since Britain signed a transition agreement last month to cover the 21-month period after it leaves the European Union, […]

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