UK Pay Growth Slows


UK Pay Growth Slows

British workers’ pay growth has slowed to its weakest in six months despite record employment, challenging the Bank of England as it considers whether to raise interest rates next month for only the second time since the financial crisis. Average weekly earnings rose by 2.5 percent on the year in the three months to May, […]

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Key Vote In Parliament Today

Following last week’s Brexit White Paper, the Customs Bill heads back to the House of Commons today. Several amendments to the bill have been tabled, including four by hard-Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg. Meanwhile, more pro-EU MPs have tabled an amendment aimed at keeping the UK in a customs union with the EU. Prime Minister Theresa May […]

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Government To Publish Brexit White Paper

Today’s attention is likely to centre on the UK government’s publication of its Brexit White Paper following last week’s Chequers meeting. The White Paper is expected to formalise the plan that ministers agreed last week and provide more detail on how the government intends to deliver on Brexit without crossing Theresa May’s red lines. While […]

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Industrial output and manufacturing data disappointed

Sterling rose from the day’s lows we reached yesterday afternoon though investors were wary of pushing it higher before data that may raise hopes of an interest rate hike in August and rising political uncertainty after the resignation of two top ministers. Boris Johnson followed Brexit minister David Davis in resigning in opposition to May’s […]

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Is the Brexit plan unworkable?

UK PM May hosts the Cabinet at Chequers today, where an agreement on the content of the government’s White Paper on a third post-Brexit trading arrangement, dubbed a “facilitated customs arrangement”, will be sought. The White Paper is expected to be published next week. It remains to be seen whether it will have the backing […]

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70% chance of UK rate hike in August

In the UK, all eyes will be on Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech at 11:00 am in Newcastle. Following the recent run of upbeat UK economic data releases and BoE chief economist Andy Haldane’s surprise shift last month to support an immediate hike in interest rates, market expectations for an August rate hike […]

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UK Data Continues To Be Positive

The pound edged up this morning ahead of a survey on Britain’s dominant services sector which traders said could lift the currency after decent numbers from the manufacturing and construction sectors earlier this week. The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index was forecast to come in at 54 for June, in line with the previous month. The […]

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UK Construction also beats forecasts

After yesterday’s UK June manufacturing PMI which was surprisingly on the upside (relative to market expectations), we expected a similar positive surprise in the construction report today, with a forecast of 53.0 from 52.5 in May, the figure released earlier came in at 53.1 beating the forecast of 52.5 Th rest of today’s data and […]

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Market Update

The Bank of England left policy unchanged last week, but the pound jumped to $1.33 after Chief Economist Andy Haldane voted for an immediate rate rise. Markets attach about 70% probability to a UK policy rate hike in August, compared with 50:50 chance previously. The big surprise last week wasn’t that the government won a […]

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Pound gains after positive meeting

The British pound gained significantly during the day yesterday, reaching above the 1.32 level comfortably against the Dollar. This was a reaction to the statement after the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold but a vote for a hike by its chief economist heightened expectations that it could tighten policy at its next […]

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