70% chance of UK rate hike in August


70% chance of UK rate hike in August

In the UK, all eyes will be on Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech at 11:00 am in Newcastle. Following the recent run of upbeat UK economic data releases and BoE chief economist Andy Haldane’s surprise shift last month to support an immediate hike in interest rates, market expectations for an August rate hike […]

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UK Data Continues To Be Positive

The pound edged up this morning ahead of a survey on Britain’s dominant services sector which traders said could lift the currency after decent numbers from the manufacturing and construction sectors earlier this week. The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index was forecast to come in at 54 for June, in line with the previous month. The […]

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UK Construction also beats forecasts

After yesterday’s UK June manufacturing PMI which was surprisingly on the upside (relative to market expectations), we expected a similar positive surprise in the construction report today, with a forecast of 53.0 from 52.5 in May, the figure released earlier came in at 53.1 beating the forecast of 52.5 Th rest of today’s data and […]

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UK Manufacturing beats expectations

In Europe, political risks are one of the themes this week. Germany’s CSU leader and interior minister, Horst Seehofer, offered to resign after the migration deal at the EU summit last week. Chancellor Merkel is due hold an emergency meeting with him today. In the UK, the focus will be on the Chequers Cabinet meeting […]

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UK GDP Revised Up

As we head into day 2 of the EU summit a review of Brexit negotiations is expected to take place amid limited progress on the Irish border issue in recent months. The UK’s proposed solutions – a ‘customs partnership’ which involves collecting tariffs on behalf of the EU or ‘max fac’ which uses technology instead […]

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Pound drops to a 2 week low

Sterling has fallen as the dollar rebounded, the pound is on track for its biggest daily drop in nearly two weeks, as imminent Brexit talks and doubts the Bank of England will raise interest rates at all this year darkened the outlook for the pound. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney yesterday said that British […]

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Carney speaking this morning – Financial Stability

The pound fell versus the dollar and Euro over the last 24 hours after an incoming Bank of England policymaker expressed caution over Britain’s readiness for higher interest rates and uncertainty over the impact of Brexit on the economy. Sterling fell as much as half a percent as economics professor John Haskel, whose views are […]

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EU Summit could hurt the Pound

Sterling edged higher from the day’s lows on the back of a weaker dollar as worries about rising trade tensions between the United States and other leading economies kept risk appetite in check. Sterling gains were limited before a crucial EU summit this week as investors booked profits from a short rally after a Bank […]

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Market Update

The Bank of England left policy unchanged last week, but the pound jumped to $1.33 after Chief Economist Andy Haldane voted for an immediate rate rise. Markets attach about 70% probability to a UK policy rate hike in August, compared with 50:50 chance previously. The big surprise last week wasn’t that the government won a […]

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Pound gains after positive meeting

The British pound gained significantly during the day yesterday, reaching above the 1.32 level comfortably against the Dollar. This was a reaction to the statement after the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold but a vote for a hike by its chief economist heightened expectations that it could tighten policy at its next […]

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