- July 3, 2018
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After yesterday’s UK June manufacturing PMI which was surprisingly on the upside (relative to market expectations), we expected a similar positive surprise in the construction report today, with a forecast of 53.0 from 52.5 in May, the figure released earlier came in at 53.1 beating the forecast of 52.5
Th rest of today’s data and events may cause only a ripple, as markets continue to focus on the bigger picture, including prospects for stock markets which have been under pressure of late, and await more important releases later in the week, including the US labour market report on Friday.
Eurozone producer price and retail sales figures are unlikely to excite markets too much, although we do see downside risks to the latter following the sharp fall in the German figures last week. We forecast a fall in Eurozone retail sales of -0.5%, compared with the consensus forecast for a marginal rise of 0.1%.
German Chancellor Merkel has managed to come to an agreement with Seehofer, the leader of the CSU party, over immigration issues. While the EUR reacted positively to this it has been only a mild move within its current range.