Blog


UK GDP Revised Up

As we head into day 2 of the EU summit a review of Brexit negotiations is expected to take place amid limited progress on the Irish border issue in recent months.

The UK’s proposed solutions – a ‘customs partnership’ which involves collecting tariffs on behalf of the EU or ‘max fac’ which uses technology instead – have so far been given short shrift by the EU.

The EU is also expected to ask for further clarity on the UK’s position (the cabinet is due to hammer out the UK’s position on post-Brexit arrangements next week), and to call for preparations to be made for the possibility of a ‘no deal’ scenario.

With sterling under renewed pressure, focus today was on the third estimate of Q1 GDP and the first official estimate of service sector output for April.

As we expected there was a good chance that Q1 GDP growth, which was afflicted by snow disruptions, may be revised higher to 0.2% from 0.1%. As the results were released that’s exactly what has happened. Sterling gained 0.2% on the back of the data release.

In Europe, we expect the ‘flash’ CPI inflation estimate for June to edge up to 2.0% from 1.9%, but for the ‘core’ measure to fall back to 1.0% from 1.1%. Thus, while the ECB is set to wind down its asset purchases by the year-end, the first interest rate rise is not expected until well into 2019 at the earliest.

In the US, we look for personal spending to rise by 0.6% (consensus: 0.4%) and for the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, to rise to 2.3% (consensus: 2.2%) from 2.0%.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

What's Going On?

Currencies 4 You Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales (registered no. 06866898). Registered office: Regus House Victory Way Admirals Park, Crossway, Dartford, Kent, DA2 6QD. Currencies 4 You Ltd Payment and Foreign Currency Exchange Services are provided by Currency Cloud Limited, Equals Money and Ebury Partners UK Limited. Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money. FCA registration number: 900199. Equals Money is a trading style of FairFX PLC. FairFX PLC is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide payment services. (Financial Services Register No: 488396). Currencies 4 You Ltd is partnered with Ebury Parnters UK Limited as its Programme Mananger. Ebury Partners UK Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority as an Electronic Money Institution. (Reference Number 900797). Ebury Partners UK Ltd is registered with the information commissioners office with registration number: ZA345828. | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Statement | Careers