- Posted by currencies in Bank of England, Brexit, Currency, Dollar, Economy, EUR, GBP, Sterling, UK, Uncategorised
- August 14, 2017
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The Pound has remained under pressure over the last week due to lack of political developments regarding Brexit & weaker data showing that the UK economy is, in fact, contracting at the moment. On Friday, the GBPEUR exchange rate closed under 1.10 for the first time in a long while- Which isn’t a good sign for those of you looking to sell Sterling and purchase the Euro.
There has been heavy resistance around the 1.0998 area for some time and on Friday the market pushed past this briefly before bouncing back. In my opinion, the floor is now open for rates to reach the low 1.09’s-1.08’s. There are many ideas at the moment that suggests that the GBPEUR exchange can retrace back to the1.15 area- and based on technical analysis I agree, the only issue with technicals at the moment is that the Pound is very much controlled by UK politics and economic data, so as long as we see positive political development in regard to Brexit and a resilient economy- then I don’t see why we couldn’t eventually see the Pound strengthen 2-3% again.
It is not just the Pound that is under pressure at the moment, we are seeing global markets retracting currently due to the prospect of a potential war between the U.S & North Korea… There has also been civil unrest in the U.S over the weekend as members of the public have been waging a race war inside of the United States- uncertainty like this causes investors to pull out of markets, and go into a safe haven investment- this week we have seen that Bitcoin has risen above $4000 (New all-time high), so it is clear when investors have decided to put their money in these uncertain times.
Economic data this week will be pinnacle towards where the markets move- On Monday, Eurozone industrial figures will be released and is expected to come in weaker than last month- production usually slows down during the Summer months in plenty parts of Europe so I am unsure if this will influence the markets, but if it does, it will not be in favour of the Euro.
Tuesday will be the day to watch for those of you monitoring Sterling exchange rates as the UK will release their inflation figures. Those of you who have been watching the markets this year will know that UK inflation has been central to how the Pound has been moving- and last month’s lower inflation figure sent the Pound lower than it has ever been as it meant the Bank of England had no reason at all to do an interest rate hike. This month, we are expecting a higher figure- and I am personally optimistic about this- so if we see this number come out stronger, Tuesday should be a good day for those of you looking to sell the Pound.