Brexit negotiations resume today

Today’s UK data releases are the May Confederation of British Industry (CBI) industrial survey which will provide an update on manufacturing. That sector grew much more quickly than the economy as a whole last year, but activity seems to have slowed in early 2018.

The deceleration may at least in part have been due to ‘bad weather’ and so activity may now rebound.

However, the last few CBI surveys have noted a sharp slowdown in orders, led by domestic orders, which suggests that other and possibly less temporary factors may also be holding back growth.

The survey’s gauge of price increases will also be of interest. While the balance has fallen from January’s 34 year high it was still at a level in April that signals potential upside risks for inflation. Public sector borrowing figures for the first month of the new fiscal year will also be released.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and several of his colleagues will testify to a House of Commons’ committee today. That will give them an opportunity to provide more detail on what evidence would prompt them to raise interest rates.

The latest round of Brexit negotiations start today in Brussels.

Markets will be looking for indications whether UK PM May’s ‘backstop’ plan to avoid a hard-Irish border is acceptable to the EU negotiators.

There are no data releases of note in either the Eurozone or the US.

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