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Market Update

The British pound was lower today after a tumultuous week in which it plunged to three-year lows before rebounding strongly as lawmakers voted to block a no-deal Brexit, making a snap election more likely.

Opposition parties will discuss how to respond to Boris Johnson’s bid to call a snap election after the prime minister said he would rather die in a ditch than delay the planned Oct. 31 departure from the European Union.

Lawmakers will on Monday hold another vote on a motion on whether to hold an early election. Opposition parties want to ensure that an election does not allow Johnson to lead the United Kingdom out of the EU without a deal next month.

The main threat to sterling’s recovery is if Johnson’s Conservative party were to win with a majority in an early election. They could then overturn the legislation requiring them to ask for an extension, increasing the threat of leaving without a deal.

Expectations for sterling price swings in the months ahead have fallen sharply as the risk of a no-deal exit from the EU receded.

The dollar edged lower this morning and was heading for its biggest weekly drop in a month as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would cut U.S. interest rates this month.

A U.S. non-farm payroll report due later on this afternoon is expected to show 158,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% in August.

Despite the upbeat data, bond markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates this month. A total of 55 basis points of rate cuts are expected this year.

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