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US Dollar Could Strengthen This Week

The dollar fell against most currencies yesterday, slipping further from a 23-month high, as traders await more data to convince them whether to add to their bullish positions in the greenback.

Most major currencies held in tight ranges on light trading volume as Japan began its extended Golden Week holiday. China will observe its Labor Day holiday from Wednesday to Friday.

A Federal Reserve policy meeting, Brexit negotiations and a raft of global data including U.S. payrolls could each be the trigger for big currency swings this week.

There is a lot of economic data later this week from around the world. People are waiting to see if there is a lot of major movements.

Manufacturing surveys from Europe and China are due later this week, along with a first reading on EU GDP. The U.S. payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show a solid increase of 185,000 jobs in April, with unemployment at 3.8%.

Traders await clues on the Fed’s global economic outlook as the central bank’s policymaking board meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Analysts do not anticipate any major changes from Fed officials who signalled last month they would not raise interest rates in 2019.

Since the Fed’s March meeting, U.S. economic data has shown expansion has continued despite some slowing since late 2018. Last Friday, the government said first-quarter gross domestic product grew at a 3.2% pace, a figure bolstered largely by a surge in inventories and exports.

Could they mention a rate rise this year again? If so, this could help the greenback recover losses this week.

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