Tuesday almost looking a little like a field day of US data in the afternoon. Since the reopening of US government, postponed data releases will now be rolled out. A mix of jobs, export, import and the month budget statement will be announced at different times in the afternoon.
First publication will be of weekly ADP job changes, recent comments from FED member Christopher Waller mentioning about the risk to the country job market with low activity of hiring. Next up is export and import prices in the US with expectations for both metrics to fall from 0.3% to 0.1% month-on-month. This year has highlighted uncertainty for international trade with ongoing trade implementation from US President Trump. Lower export and import levels will be seen as a sign of relief for the world economy and potential inflation threats.
Later in the evening we also have monthly budget statement from the US, forecasting suggests a larger deficit from 198B to 50B. If these figures do come out as forecasted, we can notice the government income is falling behind with a larger outgoing (spending), indicating that the economy is not operating as healthy as they wish for.
The USD is volatile and with recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, seeing percentage levels for a rate cut in December diminish from 60% last week to now 40%, US economic data releases leading up to their interest rate decision will give us a clearer picture of the wellbeing of the US economy and hopefully paint a clearer picture of the forward guidance from the Federal Reserve.
GBP/EUR 1.1335 GBP/USD 1.3143 GBP/AED 4.8285
GBP/AUD 2.0241 GBP/CHF 1.0466 GBP/CAD 1.8452
GBP/NZD 2.3210 EUR/USD 1.1579 GBP/ZAR 22.6563