UK housing prices continues it rising pattern for the sixth consecutive month in a row. An increased demand from first time buyers has increased demand for properties, with the stamp-duty increasing by April. An increase of 0.4% in February has now pushed housing prices up by 3.9% in the last 12 months. Housing activity is remaining resilient in the last 6 months, despite challenges for disposable income ongoing. In the last month we have seen signs of relief for the UK economy with better growth activity and a steadier job market. These factors have also contributed to additional tensions for higher inflation levels for the UK and with BoE being reserved moving forward about lowering borrowing costs. All these factors have seen GBP/EUR move from a mid-market level of 1.17 back in end of January to levels around the 1.21-mark to date, a gain of roughly 3%. Evidentially it’s not all coming down to sterling strength, in the last couple of days we have seen EUR weakness after international trade concerns from the US.
Germany’s retail sales noticed an uplift month-on-month, from a previous negative territory of -0.9% seeing their retail sector heading in the right direction for February of 0.2%. Even if the retail sector showed improvement, Germany’s unemployment rate continues to stay at a high level. Germany’s economy requires an injection to balance the job market moving forward, we can see that the unemployment rate stayed at 6.2%.
This afternoon we do have PCE (Personal consumption expenditure), personal income and personal spending being released. All three indices are forecasted to fall off slightly from its previous month, which could lead to a halt of the recent USD-gains against other currency pairs. We also have at the same time GDP growth rate for Canada, with the Canadian Dollar taking big losses recently of fears of implemented tariff levels. GDP growth rate is forecasted to almost double to its expectations of 1%, now suggested to reach 1.9%. If we see the economic activity coming out close to its more recent number, CAD can recover from its recent losses and gain against other currency pairs later today.
GBP/EUR 1.2105 GBP/USD 1.2583 GBP/AED 4.6240
GBP/AUD 2.0257 GBP/CHF 1.1349 GBP/CAD 1.8174
GBP/NZD 2.2475 EUR/USD 1.0384 GBP/ZAR 23.3074