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Sterling Surges on US-Europe Trade Deal as Central Banks Hold Steady

Trade relief off the back of The U.S/Europe trade deal has seen Pound Sterling experience it’s biggest daily gain since April. European stock markets as well as The Euro fell as investors grew more confident that trade uncertainty is diminishing. The flat 15% agreed, which is also applied to Autos shows there were no surprises in the deal and actually represents one of the better-case scenarios for European countries.

Albeit The Euro has suffered over the past few days, the fact that The European Central Bank are set to cut interest rates at a slower pace than both The Bank of England and Federal Reserve, we expect this to keep The Euro slightly elevated.

Sticking to the topic of Central Banks and policy decisions, we have two decisions later today. First up, we have the Bank of Canada who are expected to keep current rates on hold at 2.75% which would be the third straight meeting with no movement. Core Inflation currently sits at around 3% with clothing and auto prices having been affected by tariff impacts in particular. Markets currently have the possibility of a hold on rate movement at 90%.

Later this evening we then have the interest rate decision from The Federal Reserve in The U.S. The central bank concludes their two-day meeting later today and again are widely expected to keep their rates unchanged. There does seem to be an ongoing battle currently between President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell over the correct path for interest rates, but with data yesterday showing job openings and hiring slowing down in June, it will undoubtedly give the Federal Reserve food for thought.

As ever, with both Central Bank decisions it will be more than just the decision which will impact market rates. The split on votes will paint a picture to the thinking for future meetings, as will any justification or forward guidance for where policy members see inflation amongst other data going.

GBP/EUR 1.1567 GBP/USD 1.3362 GBP/AED 4.9114
GBP/AUD 2.0575 GBP/CHF 1.0751 GBP/CAD 1.8419
GBP/NZD 2.2449 EUR/USD 1.1538 GBP/ZAR 23.8782

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