The first week of December was relatively quiet, which many in the market welcomed. We did see the US Dollar lose some momentum, and the British Pound managed to recover slightly. This helped lift GBPEUR back above 1.14 and GBPUSD above 1.33, bringing some relief to Sterling buyers after a volatile November.
This week’s economic calendar is not packed, but the announcements we do have are significant. Central Banks are front and centre and could shape the tone of the market as we move deeper into December.
Tuesday: The RBA and US Labour Market Data
The action begins with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate announcement. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged at 3.6 percent. Recent RBA communication suggests policymakers want clearer confirmation that inflation is easing before they adjust policy again. Any deviation from their current neutral tone could trigger movement in the Australian Dollar during the Asian session.
Later in the day, the US releases JOLTS job openings data for October, along with the delayed September release. This report matters because the Federal Reserve uses labour market strength as a major input when deciding on monetary policy. Forecasts point to roughly 7.15 million openings, but any surprise could move the Dollar, especially with the Fed’s own decision coming the following day.
Wednesday: Bank of Canada Followed by the Fed
Wednesday is the busiest day of the week.
The Bank of Canada decides first, with expectations that rates will remain at 2.25 percent. Canada’s economic data has been uneven, so markets will pay closer attention to the forward guidance rather than the decision itself.
The main event follows later in the evening as the Federal Reserve announces its decision. A 25 basis point cut is widely expected. Since this is fully priced in, the focus is on Chair Powell’s press conference. Markets want clarity on whether further cuts are likely in early 2026. The Dollar has softened in the build-up to this meeting, and a dovish tone from Powell could extend that weakness, which would support both Sterling and the Euro.
Thursday: SNB and US Jobless Claims
Thursday brings the Swiss National Bank’s announcement. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 0 percent. Switzerland’s inflation profile is stable, so policymakers have no immediate reason to shift course.
Later, the US releases weekly jobless claims. Forecasts point to an increase toward 220,000, which would reinforce concerns that the labour market is cooling. This could put more pressure on the Dollar if the Fed’s tone on Wednesday leans toward further easing.
Friday: The UK GDP Update
The week ends with the UK’s GDP figures, which are an important indicator of economic health. Expectations sit at roughly 0.1 percent growth. While small, any growth would support Sterling by showing that the UK continues to avoid slipping into contraction. A weaker reading, however, would likely weigh on the Pound after its modest recovery last week.
GBP/EUR 1.1424 GBP/USD 1.3318 GBP/AED 4.8931
GBP/AUD 2.0067 GBP/CHF 1.0712 GBP/CAD 1.8407
GBP/NZD 2.3027 EUR/USD 1.1642 GBP/ZAR 22.6172