The pound rose for the third day running against the dollar this morning for the first time since mid-January, drawing confidence from signs some at the Bank of England may be leaning toward a rise in interest rates to support the currency.
Minutes from the Bank’s latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting shocked markets on Thursday by showing one outgoing official voting for a rise in rates and others on the verge of doing so if inflation gets much higher.
Short sterling futures for next March have shifted by six basis points since the bank’s statement on Wednesday and now price in a single rise in interest rates over the next 12 months.
That should offer the pound some support as it heads into a period of renewed political pressure when Brexit talks start next month.
A number of major banks have forecast sterling will fall below $1.20 in the months ahead, but helped by the BoE, it has this week ridden out political noise around a new Scottish independence referendum and the risks of a poor Brexit deal.
We didn’t expect much in the way of movement from yesterday’s meeting but that is exactly what we got. We expect the pound to benefit further.