Market Update

With few prospects now of a deal on Britain’s future EU ties in time for the EU’s October summit, any clues that Brexit Minister Dominic Raab can give in parliament today on its timing will be scrutinised.

He will appear at a rare mid-recess session of the upper house’s EU Committee as concerns mount that time is running out for an accord. Some are talking in terms of a month’s slippage to November, others see the EU’s regular December summit as the outside deadline.

There is no key UK or Euro data today which could have any impact on the rates.

The only major data we get today is in the US. The second reading for Q2 GDP growth is not expected to be revised significantly from the initial estimate of 4.1% annualised quarterly growth.

The overall message remains that US economic growth was very strong last quarter, but this is likely to be seen as ‘old news’ and so will probably have little impact on markets.

Of more interest now are indications of whether the economy has also grown strongly this quarter and will continue to do so into the future. Growth in most sectors remains buoyant but housing sales and starts certainly seem to have slowed through the summer. The number is volatile, but the trend is important, so August pending home sales remains of interest. We look for a 0.8% rise, which if realised would be the second consecutive monthly increase.

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