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Market Update

• Posted by currencies in Bank of England, Currency, Dollar, EUR, Fed, GBP, Inflation, Rate Cuts, Sterling, UK, Uncategorised
• November 14, 2023
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British data earlier in the day showed UK workers’ wages grew slightly less quickly in the three months to September but remained close to their record pace.

The figures will likely do little to ease the Bank of England’s concerns about inflationary pressures and did nothing to change market-based forecasts for a UK rate cut in June 2024 at the earliest.

Most major central banks are widely expected to have wrapped up their campaign to raise interest rates, so the focus has shifted to when the first cuts will materialise.

Unlike UK wage data, later the U.S. inflation report could do more to dictate the near-term outlook for sterling, given that it will shape those expectations and either give the dollar another boost, or knock it back.

Speculators now hold a modest short position in sterling, having whittled away at the largest long position in nine years over the past few months, according to weekly data from the U.S. financial markets regulator.

Wednesday’s UK consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show inflation slowed to an annual rate of 4.8% in October – the lowest for two years – from September’s 6.7%, while the core rate is forecast to have eased to 5.8% from 6.1%.

The BoE has raised interest rates by a record 5.15 percentage points in 22 months. During that time, headline inflation rose to a peak of 11% last October and has gradually declined mostly as increases in energy and food costs have subsided.

The pound on Monday showed little reaction to UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s reshuffle of his cabinet, which saw the return of former premier David Cameron to the role of foreign minister and the sacking of interior minister Suella Braverman.