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• Posted by currencies in Bank of England, Currency, Dollar, Economy, EUR, Fed, GBP, Inflation, Rate Cuts, Sterling, UK, Uncategorised
• April 19, 2023
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Sterling rises after U.K. inflation data this morning exceeded analysts’ forecasts, fuelling expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates further.
 
U.K. inflation fell to an annual rate of 10.1% in March from 10.4% in February, above the 9.8% expected by analysts.
 
With food inflation hitting a 45-year high, adding to concerns over sticky inflation and supporting expectations of a 25-basis point rate hike in May from the Bank of England.
 
Adding this number to the calculus, and barring any new financial accidents, we would expect at least two further quarter-point rate hikes before the Bank of England pauses.
 
At the same time, Tuesday’s jobs report showed the jobless rate edged up to 3.8%, and total pay growth was unchanged at 5.9%, also beating forecasts of 5.1%.
 
The ECB is more inclined to focus on core inflation than the headline cost of living and therefore further interest rate hikes are highly probable. A stickier than hoped for core inflation would encourage the ECB to raise 25 basis points in May and another 25 basis points in June.
 
In the US, data pointing to resilience in core retail sales and solid bank earnings, alongside hawkish comments of Fed officials, raised the chances for a 25 bps increase from the US central lender next month.