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Key Vote In Parliament Today

Following last week’s Brexit White Paper, the Customs Bill heads back to the House of Commons today. Several amendments to the bill have been tabled, including four by hard-Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg. Meanwhile, more pro-EU MPs have tabled an amendment aimed at keeping the UK in a customs union with the EU.

Prime Minister Theresa May will face the anger of Brexit supporters in her party today when they try to force her to change course on her strategy for leaving the European Union.

May is battling for her political survival after announcing a Brexit negotiating strategy that enraged euro sceptics in her Conservative Party, who see it as a plan to keep Britain too closely tied to Brussels.

The size of the threat should become clear today when lawmakers vote on amendments to legislation on the government’s post-Brexit customs regime, with leading euro sceptics set to vote in favour of amendments that May opposes and back their own proposals to toughen up her exit plan.

While May is not expected to be defeated on the amendments, a high number of votes in favour of altering the customs bill by members of her party would further undermine her negotiating strategy, agreed at a cabinet meeting at her Chequers country residence this month.

This afternoon, much attention will fall on Davis, who led the Brexit negotiation until he quit in protest at May’s plan, and Johnson, the former foreign minister who is seen as a challenger for her job.

Both could speak in the debate, currently due to start at 1430 GMT and end with votes at 2100, and they may have an important influence over how many colleagues are willing to speak out.

The numbers should be released at around 10pm tonight.

Data wise, today’s focus will be on US retail sales. After May’s solid gain of 0.5% m/m, we forecast a rise of 0.4%m/m in June.

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