The Australian dollar faced notable pressure following the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes, which revealed a shift in forward guidance. Concerns surrounding ongoing US–China tariff discussions added further strain, with Australia’s heavy reliance on commodity exports to China making the AUD particularly sensitive to geopolitical trade tensions.
The RBA minutes highlighted a growing openness among policymakers to cut interest rates more aggressively and sooner than previously anticipated. This dovish stance weighed on the AUD, with GBP/AUD climbing 0.5% during the morning session as markets digested the implications of potential monetary easing.
Today’s attention turns to key inflation data out of the Eurozone. Both core inflation and the headline rate are expected to ease, with forecasts pointing to a drop in core inflation from 2.7% to 2.5%, and the broader inflation rate from 2.2% to 2.0%.
With the European economy showing signs of strain, a slowdown in price pressures could offer some relief. This data will also play into expectations for Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where a 25 basis point cut is anticipated—bringing the benchmark rate down to 2.15% from 2.4%.
Later this afternoon, markets will be watching the release of US JOLTS job openings—a key indicator of labour market demand. The report, which captures the number of unfilled job positions at month-end, is expected to show a decrease of around 92,000 openings compared to the previous reading.
The data will help clarify whether the dip is due to fewer positions being available or a more efficient pace of hiring. Either outcome could influence sentiment around the strength of the US labour market.
GBP/EUR 1.1832 GBP/USD 1.3509 GBP/AED 4.9640
GBP/AUD 2.0926 GBP/CHF 1.1057 GBP/CAD 1.8549
GBP/NZD 2.2508 EUR/USD 1.1399 GBP/ZAR 24.1527