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Euro Holds Firm as Markets Eye Euro-Zone Retail Sales and U.S. Jobs Data

The Euro is holding firm at the beginning of this morning’s session with focus on July’s Retail Sales for the Bloc. With Euro-Zone inflation having rose slightly last month, but still notably close to the ECB’s target of 2%, bets of further rate cuts have cooled, with ECB member Isabel Schnabel stating on Tuesday that interest rates are in a position that allow the central bank to focus their attention elsewhere.

Retail Sales is expected to have grown by 2.4% on the yearly figure, which would undershoot retail sales in July last year. However, with inflation close to the 2% target it seems the European Central Bank are quite content. It looks for the time-being that a rate cut is now less than likely, which will only further support the Euro against other currencies. If Retail Sales were to come in massively lower, it may pose a question regarding future cuts.

Elsewhere today, the main focus is on The U.S side with the monthly release of ADP Employment Change. The labour market has been a stern focus for the Federal Reserve of late, as the performance of the jobs market dictates or at least contributes to the overall decision for the central bank when deciding on whether to cut or hike interest rates. Figures suggest that 39,000 less jobs were created in August, which if it is reciprocated in tomorrow’s Non-Farm release will build significant pressure on The Fed to implement further rate cuts between now and the end of the year.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell alluded to this in the Jackson Hole conference last month, confirming the central bank stand ready to cut interest rates in order to support the jobs market, irrespective of how high inflation is. Investors are now pretty much fully pricing in a 25 basis-point cut later this month, with a further 58 basis-point cut in December. The release of Non-Farm Payroll is the most volatile on the calendar, but recent trends suggest the jobs market is weakening, and if this were to continue we would expect to see US Dollar weakness.

GBP/EUR 1.1515 GBP/USD 1.3432 GBP/AED 4.9359
GBP/AUD 2.0588 GBP/CHF 1.0808 GBP/CAD 1.8555
GBP/NZD 2.2902 EUR/USD 1.1647 GBP/ZAR 23.8425

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