ECB Meeting Today

The main economic event today is the ECB policy announcement at 12:45BST, followed by the press conference with President Mario Draghi at 13:30BST.
No changes to interest rates or the asset purchase programme (€30bn/month) are expected.

At the last meeting in March, the ECB removed its easing bias on asset purchases but kept the end date of the programme open (“until the end of September or beyond”).
On interest rates, they are expected to remain at present levels for an extended period, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases.

We expect that it is too early for the ECB’s forward guidance to be adjusted again today, but markets will be watching Mr. Draghi’s comments very closely. We anticipate the President will be cautious about signalling less stimulus at the present time given that demand in the economy looks to have slowed in Q1 and underlying inflation remains relatively subdued.

Our central view is that the ECB will announce in July the path to end its asset purchase programme by the year-end, with a change to its forward guidance on interest rates in September. Together, these will provide greater clarity on the potential timing of the first hike (we expect that to be in mid-2019).

In the UK, the CBI distributive trades survey this morning and GfK consumer confidence in the early hours of Friday will provide an early snapshot of the household sector for April.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

What's Going On?

Currencies 4 You Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales (registered no. 06866898). Registered office: Regus House Victory Way Admirals Park, Crossway, Dartford, Kent, DA2 6QD. Currencies 4 You Ltd Payment and Foreign Currency Exchange Services are provided by Currency Cloud Limited and Equals Connect Limited. Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money. FCA registration number: 900199. Payment Services are provided by Equals Connect Limited, registered in England and Wales (registered no. 07131446). Registered Office: Vintners’ Place, 68 Upper Thames St, London, EC4V 3BJ. Equals Connect Limited are authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide payment services (FRN: 671508). Payment services for Currencies 4 You Ltd are provided by Sciopay Ltd. Sciopay Ltd is a company incorporated in England & Wales. Registration No: 12352935. Sciopay Ltd is licensed and regulated by HMRC as a Money Service Business (MSB). Licence No: XCML00000151326. Sciopay Ltd is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority as an Authorised Payment Institution. Firm Reference Number: 927951. | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Statement | Careers