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Dollar Edges Lower Ahead of Key US Labour and Retail Data

The US Dollar is drifting slightly lower this morning as investors wait for a heavy run of US economic data that will help shape interest rate expectations. Attention remains firmly on the labour market and consumer spending after recent government shutdown delays.

Sterling remains sensitive to domestic politics, trading around 1.369 against the Dollar after a volatile start to the week. Investors continue to weigh political pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer alongside expectations for further Bank of England rate cuts later this year. UK data offered some support, with the BRC retail sales monitor showing sales rising 2.3 percent year on year. This was stronger than expected and points to some resilience in consumer spending.

The main focus today is the United States, with ADP employment expected to show around 7.75 thousand jobs added. US retail sales are forecast to rise 0.5 percent month on month, with core retail sales expected at 0.4 percent. These figures will be key in assessing the strength of the US consumer and labour market.

Movements in the Dollar continue to influence major pairs, including GBP and AED, as clients keep a close eye on upcoming US data and interest rate expectations.

GBP/EUR 1.1462 GBP/USD 1.3650 GBP/AED 5.0160
GBP/AUD 1.9303 GBP/CHF 1.0462 GBP/CAD 1.8519
GBP/NZD 2.2589 EUR/USD 1.1891 GBP/ZAR 21.7653

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