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EU Inflation Holds Steady as Energy Shock Clouds Rate Outlook

Preliminary inflation rate will be released from the European Union today. Forecasting is that core inflation will be unchanged at 2.2% from its previous month. The outlook is looking similar for European inflation levels, forecasted to be unchanged at 1.7% to its last records. It would not come as a surprise if levels were unchanged or see a very small difference, as we did see both France and Germany release their numbers last week. For inflation levels in the EU-zone being below its target rate at 2%, and if it is continuing can become a growing concern especially if we do see that GDP (economic growth) slows down.

The recent development in the Middle East with the shipping strait of Hormuz been shut off is leading to a supply shortage. Prices has already surged, with gas benchmarks already up in the region of 90% in Europe and in the UK. Last time we saw this range of development was when Russia started its invasion of Ukraine. Prices can continue to inflate. With oil and gas being such a high demand commodity, being used by household and business, inflation levels are expected to start rising. In the next few weeks leading up to BoE (Bank of England) interest rate decision, can we see a different stance from the central bank if this continue to progress? Well, that’s the conundrum markets are trying to figure out right now.

GBP/EUR 1.1434 GBP/USD 1.3286 GBP/AED 4.8823
GBP/AUD 1.8858 GBP/CHF 1.0431 GBP/CAD 1.8210
GBP/NZD 2.2560 EUR/USD 1.1605 GBP/ZAR 21.6715

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