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EU Inflation Signals Ahead of Key US PPI Release

Throughout this morning session we have preliminary inflation readings from a few different EU countries. Even if its not the final data release, this tends to give us an indication of in which direction pricing levels are moving for a nation. France figures were released this morning and with France being the second largest economy within the European Union, a lift from 0.8% to 1% can suggest a potential upcoming price increase for not only France but other EU countries relying on French exports. Germany’s figures will be announced at 1pm, compared to France figures expectations is that for Germany price levels are expected to fall from 2.1% to 2%. Germany being the largest economy in the EU zone, if numbers come out as expected this could level out the increase from France and the overall inflation level across EU could stay on par, which would be welcomed by the European Central Bank.

Focus for today will be PPI (producer price index) from the US, released at 1.30pm. Lately we have seen a little more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve on interest levels and that it might be needed to hold levels for longer than what markets initial anticipated, leading to USD strength. PPI for today is expected to fall from its previous number of 0.5% to 0.3%. If the economic release comes out as forecasted, this could be a starting point for the Federal Reserve to adjust their stance moving forward on interest rates levels and a potential rate cut. PPI tends to be an indicator that if it falls, generally inflation levels should follow as the producer is not increasing the price for the consumer.

GBP/EUR 1.1413 GBP/USD 1.3480 GBP/AED 4.9531
GBP/AUD 1.8945 GBP/CHF 1.0415 GBP/CAD 1.8434
GBP/NZD 2.2520 EUR/USD 1.1796 GBP/ZAR 21.4821

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