Last week closed with renewed volatility as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensified, alongside the Supreme Court’s ruling on President Trump’s tariff measures.
Markets initially reacted positively to the Court’s decision on Friday. However, the administration has made it clear it is not stepping back. Over the weekend, the White House confirmed it will pivot to alternative legal authorities to keep tariff policy in place. President Trump has now signed an executive order introducing a new 10% global tariff, with some reports suggesting this could rise to 15%.
These measures are expected to take effect on Tuesday, February 24th. The key question now is whether markets focus on Friday’s judicial development or Monday’s policy escalation. Expect volatility at the start of the week.
Economic Calendar Overview
From a data perspective, the week is lighter but still important.
Monday:
Germany’s IFO business climate survey is expected to show a modest improvement. In the U.S., factory orders are forecast lower, which could weigh slightly on the Dollar.
Wednesday:
Eurozone CPI is expected at 1.7%, below the ECB’s 2% target. Softer inflation could reinforce expectations of a more accommodative stance from the European Central Bank.
Thursday:
A busy day. U.S. consumer confidence is expected to rise to 87.0. However, this coincides with the implementation of the new tariffs, potentially creating heightened volatility. Weekly U.S. jobless claims are also expected higher, which would be marginally negative for the Dollar.
Friday:
Swiss GDP is forecast at 0.2% growth. German flash CPI is expected at 2%, while U.S. PPI is projected to ease to 2.6%, suggesting some softening in producer-level inflation pressures.
Bottom Line
While the economic calendar is relatively calm, political developments may drive price action more than data this week. Tariff headlines are likely to dominate, and markets will be watching closely to see whether risk appetite holds or deteriorates.
For corporates and property buyers with exposure, this is a week where strategy matters more than prediction.
GBP/EUR 1.1428 GBP/USD 1.3500 GBP/AED 4.9610
GBP/AUD 1.9056 GBP/CHF 1.0443 GBP/CAD 1.8453
GBP/NZD 2.2572 EUR/USD 1.1799 GBP/ZAR 21.5859