UK unemployment rose as expected in October to 5.1%, up from 5%. The unemployment level is now at its highest point since January of 2021, in the peak of the pandemic. Average earnings noticed a slowdown deteriorating from 4.7% to 4.6% and included bonuses a fall from 4.9% to 4.7%. Evident to see that the UK labour market is finding difficulties to find stability and that earnings also don’t perform as employees had hoped for, leading to less disposable income.
This afternoon shifts to the US, and we have labour data with both ADP figures and non-farm payroll announced before US retail sales comes out too. Non-farm payroll generally has a strong impact on markets and with its previous month not released, today’s figures can depend on the outcome lead to volatility for USD-pairs. It’s forecasted to create 40k new jobs. If we see a number coming high above its forecast, we can see USD strength on the back end. On the contrary, if figures fall short of its forecast and indicating struggles on the US labour market, we can see USD weakness continuing.
Retail sales for the US are currently forecasted to be unchanged month-on-month at a level of 0.2%. This time of the year, economies rely more heavily on a strong performing retail sales sector and if we see figures being unchanged or lower, there can be an injection of USD weakness.
GBP/EUR 1.1388 GBP/USD 1.3397 GBP/AED 4.9223
GBP/AUD 2.0201 GBP/CHF 1.0663 GBP/CAD 1.8459
GBP/NZD 2.3176 EUR/USD 1.1747 GBP/ZAR 22.5113