Ahead of tomorrow’s long awaited Autumn budget, todays focus will be on the US and delayed releases from back in September of retail sales and PPI (Producer Price Index).
PPI is forecasted to see a lift in September up to 0.3% from -0.1%, suggesting costs for producers are increasing and this is then applied on prices for the consumer which leading to an uptick in inflation levels. Even if these are delayed reports from back in September, there has been a lack of economic data recently with the US government shutdown. In certain cases, this has led to a carry-on effect on data releases, especially if the numbers come out far above or below it’s forecast. This afternoon can lead to USD volatility, bear in mind, that it’s a shorter week for the US as well with Thanksgiving on Thursday.
Retail sales will also be released this afternoon, and expectations is a slowdown for September from 0.6% to 0.4%, which wouldn’t come as a surprise as the forecasting for PPI is going up. Suggesting that consumers have less confidence, and their disposable spending is squeezed. We can see that day by day the percentages are changing for the likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding rates at bay for December. If data is shaping up suggesting that the US economy is under performing compare to its predictions, we can see that percentages increases on a potential interest rate cut for December and USD will weaken off this.
GBP/EUR 1.1373 GBP/USD 1.3125 GBP/AED 4.8225
GBP/AUD 2.0327 GBP/CHF 1.0622 GBP/CAD 1.8529
GBP/NZD 2.3411 EUR/USD 1.1524 GBP/ZAR 22.6576