After UK retail sales backlash in May of -2.8%, we did see an uplift for June. Month-on-month grew by 0.9%, short of its forecast of 1.2%. The warm weather had an effect and food stores were the strongest contribution with food and drinks sales. Lower oil prices also led to that vehicle fuel sales increased in June. Even if numbers were a lot better than in May, volumes barely rose across the 2nd quarter of 2025 and likely to be a seasonal effect surrounded by promoted events, sport and the warmer weather. This raise concerns moving forward for the UK’s economic situation and fall short of the high growth numbers that would be needed for the government to fund its rising debt.
We have seen GBP/EUR fallen to a 3-month low in the start of today’s session – a clear indication that after numerous economic parameters are fallen short, the UK economy is under performing other countries and the pressure are rising on the government and Bank of England.
In today’s afternoon session the main release is from the US and durable goods orders. Expectations is that we will see a sharp decline month-on-month in June of -10.8%, coming after a strong performance in May of 16.4%. A combination of anticipation on the trade talks that’s been ongoing and a weaker USD at the same time, are the main factors expectation is that we will see a contraction.
GBP/EUR 1.1455 GBP/USD 1.3451 GBP/AED 4.9427
GBP/AUD 2.0494 GBP/CHF 1.0706 GBP/CAD 1.8400
GBP/NZD 2.2396 EUR/USD 1.1731 GBP/ZAR 23.8680