19/02/2020 – This Morning’s Exchange Rates

  • Posted by currencies in Rate Alerts
  • February 19, 2020
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Please find the exchange rates listed at the bottom of the article, the rates are for indication purposes only, for a live quote please contact us.

This morning’s main data release is UK CPI inflation for January. The previous month saw an unexpected fall to 1.3%, the lowest for three years, which had fuelled expectations of a near-term BoE rate cut.

The predictions are a rebound to at least 1.6% last month, thanks to energy prices as a result of: (i) higher petrol prices (up about 2% vs a 1.7% fall in January 2019), and (ii) the introduction of the energy price cap in January 2019 which resulted in a sharp fall of about 6% in gas and electricity prices.

The risk to this forecast for headline CPI is, if anything, less than an improvement.

Elsewhere, the main focus in the US is likely to be on the minutes of the last FOMC meeting in January when the target range for interest rates was left at 1.5-1.75%, although it made a technical upward adjustment to the interest rate paid on excess reserves.

Fed Chairman Powell has indicated that it will take a “material reassessment” of the economic outlook to prompt a policy rate change. That material change could come from the impact of the coronavirus, which policymakers are monitoring closely. For now, though, the Fed is firmly in wait-and-see mode.

Markets will also be looking ahead to official retail sales figures tomorrow and the ‘flash’ PMIs on Friday.

GBP/EUR 1.2025 GBP/USD 1.2987 GBP/AED 4.7638

GBP/AUD 1.9388 GBP/CHF 1.2781 GBP/CAD 1.7196

GBP/NZD 2.0154 EUR/USD 1.0792 GBP/ZAR 19.343

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