15/05/2024 – Exchange Rates

  • Posted by currencies in Rate Alerts
  • May 15, 2024
  • No Comments

Recent market focus has centered around European Inflation figures with Germany’s April Inflation figures released yesterday. Inflation in general rose slightly more than anticipated off the back of strong food and energy prices, initially denting investors hopes on an Interest Rate cut next month. Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in April compared to the same period 12 months prior, however when stripping food and energy prices out, Inflation had actually fallen from 3.3% to 3%. What this shows is the difficulty that many Central Banks globally are experiencing in bringing inflation down to the preferred 2% level.

French inflation has also increased by 0.3% on a monthly comparison, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see incremental monthly increases for both countries throughout this summer as Germany host the Euro’s football tournament and Paris play hosts to the Olympics later this summer. Aside from this, it’s still expected that we see an interest rate cut by The European Central Bank on their next meeting, June 6th. The telling, and deciding factor for this will be Euro-Zone’s inflation release next Tuesday. Current figures suggest inflation without food and energy prices will have also dropped from 2.9% to 2.7%. Any overshoot could cause some uncertainty for traders and investors as to whether the rate cut goes ahead, but on the other hand if inflation was to fall further then this would more than likely cement the rate cut in June.

Sticking with inflation, the focus shifts to The US for their April Inflation. Both inflation releases, with and without food and energy prices are expected to have fallen marginally, but more importantly edging closer to the 3% barrier. Analysts and traders are nervously awaiting this release, due to a possible scenario where another stronger than expected reading could spark more worries that their strong economy may force The Federal Reserve into raising rates as opposed to cutting. Any reading around the 3.5% mark or lower would again similarly to The ECB, cement the possibility of The Federal Reserve transitioning to a phase of interest rate cuts.

For both the EUR & USD, possibilities of interest rate cuts by both central banks should lead to weakness for both currencies as lower interest rates usually deter investors away.

GBP/EUR 1.1635 GBP/USD 1.2600 GBP/AED 4.6203
GBP/AUD 1.8966 GBP/CHF 1.1406 GBP/CAD 1.7174
GBP/NZD 2.0700  EUR/USD 1.0819 GBP/ZAR 23.052

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

What's Going On?

Currencies 4 You Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales (registered no. 06866898). Registered office: Regus House Victory Way Admirals Park, Crossway, Dartford, Kent, DA2 6QD. Currencies 4 You Ltd Payment and for clients based in the United Kingdom and rest of the world, payment services for Currencies4you are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England and Wales No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199).For clients based in the European Economic Area, payment services for Currencies4you are provided by CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 - 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of an electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701). For clients based in the United States, payment services for Currencies4you are provided by The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorised in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000206794359). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10011. Payment Services are provided by Equals Connect Limited, registered in England and Wales (registered no. 07131446). Registered Office: Vintners’ Place, 68 Upper Thames St, London, EC4V 3BJ. Equals Connect Limited are authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide payment services (FRN: 671508). Payment services for Currencies 4 You Ltd are provided by Sciopay Ltd. Sciopay Ltd is a company incorporated in England & Wales. Registration No: 12352935. Sciopay Ltd is licensed and regulated by HMRC as a Money Service Business (MSB). Licence No: XCML00000151326. Sciopay Ltd is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority as an Authorised Payment Institution. Firm Reference Number: 927951. Currencies 4 you's payment and foreign currency exchange services are provided by Global Currency Exchange Network Ltd T/A GC Partners. Global Currency Exchange Network Ltd is authorised by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations, 2017 (FRN: 504346). Registered as a Money Services Business, regulated by HM Revenue & Customs ("HMRC") under the Money Laundering Regulations 2017. (Registration number is 12137189). Registered in England and Wales. Company number 04675786. Registered Office 3rd Floor 100 New Bond Street, London, England, W1S 1SP. | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Statement | Careers