Brexit negotiations control Sterling

The UK focus is likely to be on developments in the Brexit negotiations. The EU-27 countries will discuss the European Commission’s draft guidelines on future EU-UK relations before European Council Donald Tusk’s press conference around 12:15GMT.

The briefing follows last week’s release of the European Commission’s draft negotiating text and UK PM Theresa May’s speech. Data wise, Eurozone Q4 GDP is expected to be unrevised at 0.6%q/q. Some indicators point to a softer start to Q1, although it is still early days.

Today’s ADP numbers will be watched as a possible guide to risks for Friday’s official payrolls, although the main focus will probably be the wage data, which drove the sharp rise in financial market volatility last month.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week said that the US economic outlook had strengthened, but he also noted he did not see strong evidence yet of a “decisive move up in wages”. NY Fed President William Dudley and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speak today.

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