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Sterling steadied near recent seven-month highs close to $1.30 today, as traders looked to a Bank of England inflation report and policy meeting this week for fresh drivers for a currency that has climbed almost 5 percent in the past month.
The BoE’s “Super Thursday” will be closely watched for clues on how long UK interest rates will remain at record lows.
Inflation has risen above the Bank’s 2 percent target, outpacing wage growth and hitting the consumers who have shored up the economy since last year’s Brexit vote. A recent survey forecast no change until 2019 at the earliest as the central bank waits to see how divorce negotiations with the European Union pan out.
Investors will also be on the look-out for whether the Bank cuts its economic growth forecasts, having raised them in its last report in February. Until then, sterling will probably stay in the $1.2850-$1.2990 range it has traded in since the start of last week.
The pound is trading around 8 U.S. cents higher than its March lows, with investors buying back into the battered currency last month when Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly called an early election for June 8.
That reflects a view among investors that May’s Conservative party will get a larger majority that will give her a stronger hand to compromise in Brexit talks.
Sterling is still down almost 14 percent against the dollar since last June’s EU referendum. But it is also almost 13 percent higher than the 31-year lows it hit in October. Against the euro, the pound is down less than 10 percent since June.
We expect (sterling) to continue outperforming its peers over the coming months.
GBP/EUR 1.1844
GBP/USD 1.2913
GBP/AED 4.7483
GBP/AUD 1.7583
GBP/CAD 1.7676
GBP/CHF 1.2935
GBP/NZD 1.8738
EUR/USD 1.0878
GBP/ZAR 17.530